Score for Brewers vs Braves Game – August 07, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Atlanta Braves

On August 7, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Truist Park in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. The Braves currently sit at 60-52, showing signs of an above-average season, while the Brewers are performing well with a 63-49 record.

In their last game, the Braves faced the Brewers and will look to bounce back after a disappointing performance, while the Brewers are riding high on their recent success. Atlanta is projected to start Chris Sale, who has had an exceptional season, boasting a Win/Loss record of 13-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.71. Meanwhile, Milwaukee sends out Freddy Peralta, who, despite a solid season with a 6-6 record and a 3.89 ERA, is a step behind Sale in terms of dominance.

The projections favor the Braves, who are expected to score an average of 4.93 runs in this game, thanks to their #10 ranking in MLB for home runs. However, their offense has struggled in some areas, ranking 28th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Brewers have a strong offense, ranking 5th in batting average and 2nd in stolen bases, but they have been less effective in generating power, sitting at 20th in home runs.

The Braves’ bullpen ranks 7th in MLB, providing a solid foundation should the game be close. With Chris Sale’s elite status as the #5 starting pitcher in the league, his ability to limit walks and strikeouts will be key against a Brewers offense known for drawing walks. As the Braves look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, this matchup could be pivotal in the race for playoff positioning.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to the average hurler, Freddy Peralta has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 7.0 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Chris Sale has utilized his four-seamer 5.5% less often this season (37.6%) than he did last season (43.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Whit Merrifield’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 85.1-mph mark last year has fallen to 83.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect better results for the Atlanta Braves offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 88 games (+23.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 59 games (+8.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+15.10 Units / 47% ROI)