Review the Latest Player Stats for Red Sox vs Rays – Thursday, September 19th, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox prepare for their September 19 matchup at Tropicana Field, both teams find themselves treading water in the American League East, each with records reflecting average seasons. The Rays sit at 74-78, while the Red Sox, marginally better, are balanced at 76-76. Despite the underwhelming records, Boston’s offense shines, ranking 5th best in MLB, contrasting sharply with Tampa Bay’s struggling lineup, which ranks 26th.

In the previous encounter on September 18, the Red Sox narrowly edged out the Rays 2-1. The matchup featured close betting lines, and today’s game is projected to follow suit, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

On the mound, Zack Littell takes the start for the Rays, boasting a respectable 3.73 ERA, though his expected ERA suggests he’s been fortunate this season. His recent outing on September 13 was impressive, throwing six scoreless innings with five strikeouts. Littell’s challenge will be to contain a potent Red Sox lineup led by Jarren Duran, who has been a consistent force with a .285 batting average and 21 home runs this season.

For the Red Sox, Brayan Bello, ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher, gets the nod. Despite an ERA of 4.60, his underlying metrics indicate he’s been unlucky, projecting potential improvement. He threw well in his last start on September 14, allowing just one earned run over five innings. Bello’s groundball tendencies could neutralize a Rays team that lacks power, ranking 27th in home runs.

While both bullpens have been noteworthy, the Rays hold the edge, ranked 3rd best, compared to Boston’s average 15th. This matchup is set to be a tight contest, with the Red Sox having a projected win probability of 53% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Brayan Bello’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (55.5% vs. 43.1% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Triston Casas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox bats as a group place 4th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 9.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (91.9 mph) below where it was last season (93.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 83 of their last 142 games (+19.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 60% ROI)