Review Player Predictions Overview for Marlins vs Cardinals – Sunday June 28, 2026

Miami Marlins

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Tyler Phillips was on point in his last game started and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Griffin Conine has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Owen Caissie hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Kyle Leahy projects to average 5.4 hits in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Lars Nootbaar has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 13.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 23.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (18.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+185/-245)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+11.60 Units / 46% ROI)