Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Padres vs Dodgers - September 22, 2026

+110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-130

Michael King – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael King has relied on his secondary offerings 6.1% more often this year (52.2%) than he did last year (46.1%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Dustin Harris – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
Dustin Harris has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
Roki Sasaki’s 97.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.8-mph jump from last year’s 95.4-mph mark.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Tommy Edman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 81.5-mph over the last 14 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-130)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 73% ROI)
Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
Mookie Betts has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+14.50 Units / 145% ROI)

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