Review Player Predictions Overview for Blue Jays vs Mariners - Friday July 3, 2026

-130O/U: 7
(-115/-105)+110

Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Out of all SPs, Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity of 97.1 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Daulton Varsho’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 85.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 79.6-mph over the last week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
Alejandro Kirk has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Compared to the average starter, Luis Castillo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 6.1 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Despite posting a .259 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cal Raleigh has suffered from bad luck given the .085 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+5.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+205/-280)
Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 20% ROI)

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