Review Brewers vs Cardinals Betting Line and Odds – 8/22/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals, currently sitting with a record of 62-64, are looking to build momentum after a recent victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, winning 10-6 on August 21, 2024. The Brewers, boasting a solid 73-53 record, are having a great season but will need to bounce back quickly in this pivotal matchup at Busch Stadium.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. While Mikolas has had an up-and-down year with an 8-10 record and a disappointing ERA of 5.41, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky. He faces a Brewers offense that ranks 10th in the league and has the 3rd most walks, which may be a challenge for Mikolas’s low-walk approach (3.8 BB%). However, his recent start was rough, as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Brewers just a week ago.

Freddy Peralta, on the other hand, is expected to start for the Brewers. With an 8-7 record and a solid 4.00 ERA, Peralta has been effective this season. His recent performance also showcases his ability to limit damage, coming off a strong outing where he allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings. According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Brewers to win, but they might not be able to capitalize on Mikolas’s control issues as expected.

As for the offenses, the Cardinals rank 19th overall but have shown signs of life recently, particularly with Alec Burleson leading the charge. Meanwhile, the Brewers possess a more potent offense, particularly in batting average, ranking 5th overall. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors should expect another closely contested affair as both teams vie for crucial victories in this series.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Freddy Peralta has relied on his curveball 7.6% less often this season (4.9%) than he did last season (12.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  As it relates to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has been very fortunate this year. His 21.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)
  In his last game started, Miles Mikolas turned in a great performance and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 120 games (+12.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+11.15 Units / 57% ROI)