Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
(-115/-105)-110
On September 15, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves in a tight race, with the Cardinals holding a record of 73-77, while the Reds sit slightly ahead at 74-75. Despite their average records, the Reds rank 19th in offense, while the Cardinals struggle at 23rd, indicating a potential advantage for Cincinnati.
In their last outings, the Cardinals edged out the Reds 3-2, while the Reds faced a more significant defeat, losing 7-4. This sets the stage for a critical matchup, especially with the Cardinals looking to capitalize on their recent win.
Matthew Liberatore is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. Despite being ranked 181st among MLB starting pitchers, Liberatore has shown flashes of potential. However, he struggled in his last start, allowing five earned runs over just four innings. His projections today suggest he may pitch 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs but projecting a concerning 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks.
Zack Littell, on the other hand, will start for Cincinnati. He has been more consistent, sporting a solid 3.78 ERA and a recent strong performance where he allowed just two earned runs over six innings. His projections indicate he might pitch slightly longer than Liberatore, with an expected 5.2 innings and 2.8 earned runs allowed.
As for betting lines, both teams are set at -110 moneylines, indicating a close contest. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a moderate scoring affair. With the Cardinals’ offense struggling, particularly in terms of power—ranking 28th in home runs—this matchup could favor Littell and the Reds if they capitalize on the opportunities presented.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Zack Littell’s slider utilization has decreased by 6.2% from last year to this one (39.9% to 33.7%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Austin Hays has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 77.9-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)The 3rd-weakest projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Matthew Liberatore’s 2111-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 2nd percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)When it comes to his home runs, Lars Nootbaar has had some very poor luck this year. His 14.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.4.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- St. Louis Cardinals hitters collectively grade out 22nd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 8% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 106 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 120 games (+23.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.05 Units / 117% ROI)