Red Sox vs Astros Bets and Betting Trends – 8/21/24

Boston Red Sox

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros host the Boston Red Sox on August 21, 2024, both teams are in the thick of a competitive season. The Astros, sitting at 68-57, are having an above-average year and currently hold a solid position in the standings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, with a record of 66-59, are also performing well, making this matchup particularly intriguing.

In their most recent game, the Astros faced off against the Red Sox, where they managed to secure a win, keeping their momentum alive. This game marks the third in the series, adding to the stakes as both teams look to gain an upper hand.

On the mound, the Astros are set to start Justin Verlander, who has been a reliable presence this season. Despite his 3-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.95, his 4.98 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate thus far, projecting him to allow 1.9 earned runs over an average of 4.4 innings today. Contrastingly, Cooper Criswell of the Red Sox has had a tougher season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. He holds a 5-4 record with an ERA of 4.56, but his projections indicate a potential for improvement, as he’s expected to pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Astros rank 11th in the league, bolstered by their impressive 2nd-best team batting average. Jon Singleton has been their hottest hitter lately, contributing significantly to their success. On the other side, the Red Sox boast the 4th best offense in MLB, led by Masataka Yoshida, who has been on a tear, hitting .500 with an OPS of 1.441 over the last week.

With the Astros favored at -150 and an implied team total of 4.62 runs, they look to capitalize on their strong offense and Verlander’s experience against a struggling Red Sox pitching staff. This matchup promises to be a thrilling contest as both teams vie for crucial wins in the latter part of the season.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Cooper Criswell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing hitters today… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Typically, bats like Wilyer Abreu who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Justin Verlander’s 2407-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-135)
  The 5th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Houston Astros.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 124 games (+16.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 67 games (+20.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)