Read the Game Recap for Brewers vs Twins – June 21st, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Minnesota Twins

On June 21, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field in an Interleague matchup. The Twins enter this game with a record of 37-38, sitting in a middle tier of the standings, while the Brewers hold a better record at 41-35, showcasing an above-average season. Although both teams are trying to make their mark, the Twins are still in contention for a Wild Card spot.

In their previous game, the Twins managed to edge out the Brewers, but both teams are looking to improve upon their recent performances. The Twins’ best hitter has been on a hot streak, recording 5 hits and 4 home runs in the last week, which could provide a significant boost to their offense that ranks 16th in MLB this season.

On the mound, Minnesota will send out Simeon Woods Richard, who has struggled this season, boasting a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.13. While his Power Rankings position at #170 suggests he has not been effective, a 4.51 xFIP indicates he may be due for a turnaround. The projections suggest he will pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, which is concerning given his high flyball percentage.

Opposing him will be Jose Quintana for the Brewers, who has a more favorable record of 4-2 and an excellent ERA of 3.35. However, his xFIP of 4.60 hints that he may have benefitted from some luck this season. Quintana is projected to pitch about 5.2 innings, but he too has issues to address, particularly with allowing 6.4 hits on average.

Given the Twins’ solid bullpen ranked 8th in MLB and the Brewers’ offense struggling with a ranking of 23rd, this matchup could favor Minnesota, especially with their best hitter heating up. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Jose Quintana’s 89.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph drop off from last year’s 90.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Over the last 14 days, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Milwaukee grades out as the #30 squad in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (12.6% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Byron Buxton has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)