Read the Game Recap for Brewers vs Twins – June 21st, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers prepare for their matchup on June 21, 2025, the stakes are heightened following a lopsided 17-6 victory for the Brewers over the Twins just a day prior. With the Twins sitting at 37-38, they find themselves in an average season, while the Brewers have managed to secure a stronger 41-35 record, indicating their above-average performance so far.

The Twins will send Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound, who has had a tumultuous season with a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.13. Although he pitched well in his last outing, tossing 5 scoreless innings, the projections indicate he may struggle today, projecting 4.8 innings with an average of 2.9 earned runs and allowing 5.3 hits. His high flyball rate could work in his favor against the Brewers, who have demonstrated little power this season, ranking 6th lowest in home runs with only 69.

Conversely, Milwaukee’s Jose Quintana, despite being one of the lower-ranked pitchers in the league, boasts a solid ERA of 3.35. However, he was hit hard in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 innings. The projections suggest Quintana may regress further, with expectations to allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.2 hits.

Offensively, the Twins’ lineup has shown to be lackluster, ranking 16th overall but notably struggling in batting average at 20th. On the other side, the Brewers rank 21st in runs scored and batting average, but they’ve excelled in stolen bases, ranking 2nd.

Despite the recent loss, the Twins have a slight edge with an implied team total of 5.02 runs, suggesting they could bounce back strong. With both teams struggling to produce consistently, expect a competitive game as they look to find their rhythm.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Over the last 14 days, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Milwaukee Brewers (20.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Byron Buxton has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota’s 91.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #25 club in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)