Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-210
The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 3, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Yankees currently sit at 19-13, showing promise this season, while the Rays struggle at 14-18. The Yankees are projected to start Ryan Yarbrough, who has yet to start a game this season, making eight appearances out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays, holding a 1-5 record and a 5.03 ERA.
In their latest meeting on May 2, the Yankees secured a convincing 3-0 victory, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Yankees have a remarkable 54 home runs this season, which is tied to their ranking as the 2nd best team in batting average. The Rays, on the other hand, rank 23rd in home runs and 19th in overall offensive performance, highlighting their struggles at the plate.
Yarbrough’s projections suggest he will pitch an average of 4.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. Given his high 4.89 FIP, this indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season compared to his performance metrics. Littell, while averaging 5.3 innings pitched, is projected to allow 3.2 earned runs and has a better strikeout rate than Yarbrough, which may play in his favor against a Yankees lineup that has the 4th most strikeouts in MLB.
The Yankees come into this game as significant favorites, with a moneyline of -210. Their offense’s depth against Littell’s flyball tendencies could favor New York, especially given that Littell is prone to giving up home runs. As both teams look to improve their standings, the Yankees will aim to maintain their momentum, while the Rays desperately seek a turnaround.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Christopher Morel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Christopher Morel has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Yarbrough has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Ryan Yarbrough – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Given his large platoon split, Ryan Yarbrough faces a tough challenge matching up with 7 batters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Ben Rice has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year’s 90-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .330, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .355 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.52 Units / 40% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)