Rangers vs Astros Bets and Betting Trends – 7/13/25

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park on July 13, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Astros currently boast a strong record of 56-39, sitting firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Rangers find themselves at 47-49, having struggled to find consistency this season. In their last encounter, the Astros continued their solid play, building momentum for this matchup.

On the mound, Hunter Brown leads the Astros as the projected starter. This season, Brown has established himself as one of the more reliable pitchers, posting a 9-3 record and an impressive 2.21 ERA, ranking him as the 15th best starter in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, his 2.85 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this year. Brown’s projections for this game indicate he will pitch an average of 5.8 innings while yielding an estimated 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters.

The Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who has been solid in his own right, holding a 6-3 record and a stellar 1.62 ERA, making him the 38th best starter in the league. Eovaldi is projected to pitch about 5.9 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, but he may face challenges against the Astros’ 8th ranked offense, particularly given that they lead MLB in batting average.

While the Astros have excelled offensively, ranking 1st in team batting average, the Rangers’ offense has struggled overall, ranking 25th. The Astros’ bullpen also shines as the 2nd best in the league, while the Rangers’ relief corps sits at 29th. This disparity in pitching depth could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, especially with the Game Total set low at 7.0 runs.

With Hunter Brown’s solid form and the Astros’ offensive prowess, they could be positioned to outperform their given odds, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to back a team with a higher potential than the market suggests.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Nathan Eovaldi’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (71.7% compared to 62.7% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+380/-580)
  Checking in at the 88th percentile for base-stealing, Evan Carter has paced 27.2 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starters, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph is in the 92nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Zack Short tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+165/-220)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Walks Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)