Player Props for Braves vs Blue Jays – Monday April 14, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Toronto Blue Jays

On April 14, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre for the first game of their interleague series. This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions in the standings; the Blue Jays are 9-7 and enjoying a solid start to their season, while the Braves sit at a disappointing 4-11.

In their last outings, the Blue Jays edged out a victory against the Chicago White Sox, winning 7-6, while the Braves fell flat, losing 8-3 to the San Diego Padres. The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 11th overall in MLB, bolstered by a 3rd-best team batting average that indicates their ability to consistently get on base, although they struggle with power as evidenced by their 29th ranking in home runs. This could play to their advantage given the current state of their pitching match-up.

Projected to take the mound for the Blue Jays is Easton Lucas, a left-handed pitcher with an impressive 0.00 ERA over his first two starts, though his xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of success. Lucas’s high strikeout rate of 29.0% could be key against a Braves lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts. On the other hand, Grant Holmes is set to start for the Braves; he has a respectable 4.00 ERA but is considered below-average by the projections. Holmes has also struggled with averages, allowing 6.3 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

As the Blue Jays look to capitalize on their recent momentum and home-field advantage, the projections favor them slightly with an implied team total of 4.25 runs, suggesting they could edge out a close game against the struggling Braves. With both teams keen to improve their standing and the stakes high, this matchup is one to watch.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-120)
  The Atlanta Braves outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Olson has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Easton Lucas is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.55 Units / 25% ROI)