Player Prop Picks for Rockies vs Mets – 4/25/2026

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+150)
  Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Ezequiel Tovar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Mets Insights

• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyrone Taylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89-mph mark last season has lowered to 85.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.45 Units / 74% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.40 Units / 35% ROI)