Player Analysis for Braves vs Pirates - July 07, 2026

+125O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-145

Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)
Recording 58.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Hurston Waldrep ranks in the 2nd percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
Austin Riley is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Drake Baldwin has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
The Atlanta Braves have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 87.4-mph mark last season has fallen off to 83.7-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.315 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .333 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)

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