Player Analysis for Braves vs Pirates - July 07, 2026

+145O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-170

Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball bats, Hurston Waldrep and his 47.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Austin Riley is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Drake Baldwin has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
The Atlanta Braves have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under Total Bases
Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 87.4-mph mark last season has fallen off to 83.7-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.318 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .332 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 32% ROI)

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