Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Yankees vs Rays Match – 7/07/26

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees Insights

• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.1-mph figure last year has dropped to 83.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Ian Seymour’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (62.6% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)