
Colorado Rockies
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Chicago Cubs
+165O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-190
(-110/-110)-190
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Ryan Feltner has recorded 13.6 outs per outing this year, placing in the 9th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Hunter Goodman has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Edward Cabrera’s change-up utilization has spiked by 6.1% from last season to this one (25.6% to 31.7%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Dansby Swanson has been unlucky this year, notching a .269 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .064 discrepancy.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 45 games (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)
