Odds and Betting Tips for Rays vs White Sox – 9/10/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Chicago White Sox

On September 10, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Guaranteed Rate Field for the second game in their series. The White Sox are currently struggling, with a 55-90 record, while the Rays sit at a more respectable 72-72. This matchup of American League teams features a stark contrast in performance, especially in the pitching department.

Sean Burke, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a challenging season. He carries a 4-10 record and ranks as the 244th best starting pitcher in MLB, illustrating his struggles on the mound. His average outing projects to be just 4.9 innings with 2.7 earned runs allowed, which is not ideal against a Rays offense that ranks 14th overall. Burke’s high walk rate of 10.3% could work against him, as the Rays are one of the least patient teams at the plate, potentially minimizing Burke’s control issues.

On the flip side, Griffin Jax, who is projected to start for Tampa Bay, has struggled too but boasts a much better ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although his record stands at 1-7, his peripherals suggest he has been unlucky this season. Jax’s last outing was a strong one, going just 1 inning but not allowing any earned runs, which could build his confidence heading into this matchup.

The White Sox offense has ranked 28th in MLB, which bodes poorly for their chances against a Rays team that ranks much higher at 14th. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, betting trends indicate the White Sox as underdogs at +120, with an implied team total of just 3.96 runs. This presents an opportunity for the Rays, who are favored at -140 and have an implied total of 4.54 runs. As both teams battle through the remainder of the season, this game is critical for Tampa Bay as they push for a Wild Card spot.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Griffin Jax – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Griffin Jax’s 2464-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 89th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.255) suggests that Jake Mangum has been very fortunate this year with his .295 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Tallying 14.7 outs per game per started this year on average, Sean Burke places in the 20th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Andrew Benintendi has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 98 games (+15.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 123 games (+12.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Colson Montgomery has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)