Mets vs Cardinals Betting Guide – 3/31/26

New York Mets

@

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 62.7% of the time, placing in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  St. Louis’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Jorge Polanco, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+140)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+325/-480)
  Victor Scott II’s 4% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+10.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+7.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.65 Units / 24% ROI)