Match Preview: Pirates vs Cardinals Game Forecast - Thursday, May 21, 2026

-120O/U: 7
(-110/-110)+100

Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Braxton Ashcraft in the 80th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.6-mph average to last year’s 97.3-mph figure.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 24.3% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
In his last outing, Dustin May gave up a monstrous 6 earned runs.
Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
Alec Burleson has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+8.15 Units / 81% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics