Match Preview: Guardians vs Royals Game Forecast – Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

@

Kansas City Royals

On September 3, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will clash with the Cleveland Guardians in the second game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. These two teams are closely matched in the AL Central, with the Guardians leading the way with a record of 79-59, while the Royals sit at 75-64. The Guardians aim to capitalize on their good season, especially after defeating the Royals 4-2 just a day earlier.

Royals’ right-hander Brady Singer will take the mound with a Win/Loss record of 9-9 and a solid ERA of 3.36. While his ERA suggests good performance, his xERA of 4.38 indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season and might struggle moving forward. In his last outing on August 29, Singer pitched effectively, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings. However, his projected numbers for today are concerning, particularly his projections of allowing 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks—both below average.

Opposing him is Tanner Bibee, also a right-hander, who has forged a better record of 10-6 with an ERA of 3.65. Although he was roughed up in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs in 5 innings, the projections suggest he might bounce back today, projecting to allow only 2.5 earned runs. Bibee’s ability to strike out hitters (26.6 K%) may be challenged by the low-strikeout Royals offense, which ranks as the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB.

Interestingly, THE BAT X projects the Guardians as favorites in this matchup, expecting them to score an average of 5.16 runs compared to the Royals’ 4.20. As both teams fight to solidify their places in the standings, this matchup promises to be a closely contested game, with the Guardians positioned well to take another victory.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Considering the 0.27 difference between Tanner Bibee’s 9.82 K/9 and his 9.55 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to negatively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Will Brennan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Will Brennan has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 81.3-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians (17.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2346 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2268 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games at home (+7.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)