Match Preview: Cubs vs Rays Game Forecast - Tuesday, April 7, 2026

-105O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-115

Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Javier Assad encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Miguel Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Miguel Amaya has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .367 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .274.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Today, Dansby Swanson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-115)
The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams on the slate today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Junior Caminero has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 13.9% rate last season has dropped off to 8% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19.1% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)

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