Live Updates for Rockies vs Dodgers – 4/16/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On April 16, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium for the third game of their series. The Dodgers currently sit at 12-6, showcasing a strong start to the season, while the Rockies are struggling significantly with a record of just 3-13. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially with the Dodgers looking to solidify their standing in the National League West.

In their previous game, the Dodgers secured a convincing victory, further highlighting the disparity between these two teams this season. Bobby Miller is projected to take the mound for Los Angeles, and while he ranks as the 168th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, he has the potential to produce solid outings. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, which is commendable. However, he does have concerns with allowing 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks per game, which could be problematic against a patient Rockies lineup.

German Marquez will get the start for Colorado, and while he carries a 4.60 ERA this season, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been unlucky. His 3.13 xERA indicates potential for improvement, but he has struggled with control, evidenced by a 10.5% walk rate. Marquez projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, which could be a challenge against the Dodgers’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs.

The Dodgers’ offense is bolstered by a strong lineup that ranks 9th overall in MLB, while the Rockies sit at a dismal 25th. The projections suggest that Los Angeles will score an impressive 5.35 runs, compared to Colorado’s lowly 3.15. With the Dodgers as heavy favorites at -300 on the moneyline, bettors may view this matchup as a prime opportunity to capitalize on the disparity in talent and form.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 59.2% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Kyle Farmer’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 90.3-mph figure last season has lowered to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Bobby Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bobby Miller’s 97.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 99th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Bats such as Max Muncy with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like German Marquez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.80 Units / 4% ROI)
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-240)
  Michael Toglia has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI)