New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)+110
The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets are set to clash on July 7, 2024, at PNC Park in what will be the third game of their series. As we approach the midpoint of the season, both teams find themselves in the middle of the standings, with the Pirates holding a 42-46 record and the Mets just slightly better at 43-44. Neither team is currently in playoff contention, but every game still holds significant importance for shaping the rest of their seasons.
Luis Ortiz will take the mound for the Pirates, bringing his 3.27 ERA into the game despite being ranked as the #225 starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ortiz has had a mixed season, showing a solid 4-2 Win/Loss record, but his 4.39 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat lucky and may regress. Ortiz’s high-flyball tendency (39 FB%) could be problematic against a Mets lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 110 home runs this season.
The Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, whose 3.67 ERA and 5-3 Win/Loss record depict a more stable performance. Manaea’s xFIP of 4.37 also indicates some good fortune, but he’s generally projected to be average across key metrics today. He is expected to go 5.2 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, strike out 5.6 batters, give up 5.3 hits, and issue 1.9 walks.
Offensively, the Mets hold a clear advantage. Their lineup ranks 11th in MLB in batting average and 4th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense is struggling, ranking 25th overall and 23rd in batting average. The Pirates do have a bright spot in Michael A. Taylor, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .571 batting average and 1.571 OPS over five games. On the Mets’ side, Brandon Nimmo has been equally impressive, hitting .381 with a 1.077 OPS over his last six games.
Both bullpens play a critical role as well. The Pirates’ bullpen ranks 10th best according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, a notable improvement over their year-to-date ranking. Conversely, the Mets’ bullpen has struggled, ranking 21st, which is worse than their year-to-date performance.
The betting markets currently have the Pirates as slight underdogs with a moneyline of +115, giving them an implied win probability of 45%. The Mets, favored with a moneyline of -135, hold an implied win probability of 55%. Given the Mets’ power and the Pirates’ pitching vulnerabilities, this game is poised to be a tightly contested battle.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Recording 92.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Sean Manaea ranks in the 81st percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- DJ Stewart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)D.J. Stewart has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Luis Ortiz’s cut-fastball utilization has spiked by 26.2% from last season to this one (0.3% to 26.5%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Edward Olivares – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Edward Olivares’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 90.5-mph EV last year has fallen off to 84.3-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 61 games (+13.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- DJ Stewart – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.80 Units / 37% ROI)