Live Updates for Marlins vs Pirates – 9/09/2024

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 9, 2024, both teams are looking to turn around what has been a challenging season. The Pirates, sitting at a record of 67-76, find themselves amidst a below-average campaign. Meanwhile, the Marlins have struggled tremendously, with a record of 54-89, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league. This matchup holds added significance, as it is the first game of the series and both teams are eager for a fresh start.

Both teams are coming off tough stretches. Paul Skenes, projected to start for the Pirates, is having a stellar year with a Win/Loss record of 9-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.13. Notably, Skenes has been recognized as the top starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, his performance may be challenged by a Marlins offense that has produced just 85 home runs this season, ranking them 2nd lowest in MLB. Skenes, known for his high-groundball rate, could keep the Marlins from capitalizing on their few power opportunities.

On the other side, Miami’s Valente Bellozo has had a tough time, with a record of 2-2 and a 3.78 ERA. The projections suggest he might struggle against a Pirates lineup that has the 5th highest strikeout rate in MLB. Bellozo’s low strikeout rate could play into the hands of the Pirates, who need to capitalize on opportunities.

In terms of betting, the Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -250, signaling an implied win probability of 69%. With Skenes on the mound and the Marlins’ recent struggles, the Pirates may provide significant value against a struggling opponent, despite their recent offensive woes, which rank them 28th in MLB overall. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially lower-scoring affair. Given the current context, this game could be an opportunity for the Pirates to assert dominance at home.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starters, Valente Bellozo’s fastball velocity of 88.8 mph grades out in the 3rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Xavier Edwards has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 81.5-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will be challenged by the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Paul Skenes and his 47.4% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position today facing 3 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Oneil Cruz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Valente Bellozo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 118 games (+13.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Yasmani Grandal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Yasmani Grandal has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)