Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)-165
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Texas Rangers on September 11, 2024, both teams enter the matchup with very different trajectories. The Diamondbacks sit comfortably with an 81-64 record, showcasing their strong season, while the Rangers struggle at 70-75, marking them as a below-average team this year. This game marks the second in the series, with Arizona having secured a convincing 6-0 victory yesterday.
Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, bringing with him a perfect 4-0 record this season. Despite his average ranking as the 111th best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performance suggests he could be primed for another solid outing. In his last start on September 5, Kelly pitched 7 innings, yielding just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters. His expected metrics indicate some luck this season, but his ability to limit damage has been key for Arizona.
On the other side, Texas will counter with Cody Bradford, who has had a decent season with a 3.05 ERA. However, he faces a daunting challenge against the Diamondbacks’ powerful offense, which ranks 1st overall in MLB. Given that the Diamondbacks have hit 183 home runs this year, they could capitalize on Bradford’s flyball tendencies, potentially turning those into extra-base hits.
The projections suggest that the Diamondbacks will score an average of 4.70 runs, while the Rangers may tally around 4.58 runs. With Arizona favored at a moneyline of -160, there could be value in backing the Rangers, who are underdogs at +140, even if they’ve struggled to find consistency this season.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Today, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.7% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+155)Compared to average, Merrill Kelly has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.2 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Cody Bradford.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 21.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 101 games (+28.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 50 games (+38.15 Units / 76% ROI)