
Colorado Rockies
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Chicago White Sox
+210O/U: 8
(-115/-105)-245
(-115/-105)-245
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Quintana has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.4% more often this year (50.8%) than he did last year (44.4%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Hunter Goodman pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Among all starting pitchers, Davis Martin’s fastball spin rate of 2408 rpm grades out in the 80th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brenton Doyle, Kyle Teel, Munetaka Murakami).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)Kyle Teel has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
