Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Rays vs Orioles – Sunday August 23, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Nick Martinez has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts