Blue Jays vs Yankees Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/23/2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• José Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Jose Soriano’s fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this season (95.6 mph) below where it was last season (96.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky this year, putting up a .305 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .053 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carlos Rodon to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• George Lombard Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  George Lombard is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Luis García Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)