In-depth Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Yankees – Tuesday May 19, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Dylan Cease’s 97.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 93rd percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Warren is expected to ring up an average of 5.8 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Ryan McMahon’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 95.6-mph mark last year has dropped off to 92.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Yankees bats as a group place in the league for power this year when using their 11.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games at home (+5.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Tyler Heineman has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 54% ROI)