How to Watch the Guardians vs Reds Game – Friday May 16, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Cleveland Guardians in an Interleague matchup on May 16, 2025, following contrasting results in their previous games. The Reds are battling through a below-average season with a record of 21-24, while the Guardians stand at a solid 25-18, enjoying a strong campaign. In their last outing, the Reds secured a convincing 7-1 victory, while the Guardians fell to a 9-5 defeat.

Projected starters Brady Singer and Tanner Bibee will take the mound for their respective teams. Singer, ranked 114th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a rough stretch, including a disastrous outing on May 10 where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 innings. His ERA sits at a below-average 4.97, and he projects to allow 3.2 earned runs today. Despite these struggles, his xFIP suggests he may be due for better luck.

On the other hand, Bibee is coming off a strong performance, where he pitched 7 innings with only 1 earned run allowed in his last start. He ranks 75th among MLB starters, with a solid ERA of 3.80. However, projections indicate he might be overperforming, as his xFIP is higher than his ERA.

Offensively, the Reds have an average ranking, sitting 13th in runs scored. Their best hitter has been productive, with a .357 batting average and 1.185 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Guardians’ offense ranks 21st in the league, making this matchup intriguing given the Reds’ potential to exploit Bibee’s low strikeout rate against their high-strikeout offense.

With a Game Total of 9.5 runs, oddsmakers view this as a high-scoring affair, reflecting the potential for both teams to capitalize on the opposing pitching weaknesses. The Reds are currently favored with a moneyline of +100, suggesting this game could be tightly contested.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Carlos Santana has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Brady Singer’s slider utilization has fallen by 10.9% from last season to this one (45.5% to 34.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Spencer Steer’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 31% ROI)