How to Watch Pirates vs Rays – Tuesday, April 01, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Pittsburgh Pirates in an intriguing interleague matchup on April 1, 2025, following a decisive victory for the Rays yesterday, where they beat the Pirates 6-1. This game marks the second in the series as the Rays aim to build on their positive momentum against a struggling Pirates team that has found itself at the bottom of the standings.

Currently, the Rays hold a 3-1 record this season, showcasing a solid start, while the Pirates sit at a disappointing 1-4. The advanced-stat Power Rankings underscore the disparity, with Shane Baz projected to start for Tampa Bay, ranking as the 129th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. Despite this, Baz’s last outing on September 28, 2024, was impressive, pitching 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 7 strikeouts. However, projections indicate he may struggle today, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched, 2.2 earned runs allowed, and 4.5 hits given up on average.

On the other side, Thomas Harrington takes the mound for Pittsburgh, but he is projected to be one of the worst pitchers in the league, with similarly concerning stats. His average projections suggest 4.6 innings pitched with 2.5 earned runs allowed. With both starting pitchers facing challenges, the game could hinge significantly on the bullpens, where the Rays rank 8th, in stark contrast to the Pirates’ 25th place ranking.

While the Rays’ offense ranks near the bottom overall, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense is equally lackluster, sitting at 28th in the league. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for offensive output. Tampa Bay enters this matchup as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -150, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure a win against the underdog Pirates, who carry a moneyline of +130. With the Rays’ superior bullpen and the Pirates’ ongoing struggles, this contest shapes up to favor Tampa Bay once again.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz’s 15.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air 100 mph or greater since the start of last season, ranking them as the #8 club in baseball by this standard.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-165)
  Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kameron Misner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Grading out in the 0th percentile, Kameron Misner has hit 0% of his balls in the air since the start of last season with a velocity of 100+ mph.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 147 games (+23.21 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 66 away games (+5.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.80 Units / 39% ROI)