How to Watch Astros vs Rays – Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Houston Astros on August 14, 2024, at Tropicana Field, both teams are coming off a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Astros edged the Rays 3-2. This matchup has significant implications as the Rays, currently with a record of 59-60, are looking to gain ground, while the Astros, sitting at 64-55, aim to solidify their position in the standings.

The Rays are projected to start Zack Littell, who has struggled this season with a 5-8 record and a 4.11 ERA, ranking him as an average pitcher in the league. In his last outing, Littell pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, which was deemed uneventful. He faces a challenging task against a potent Astros lineup led by Yordan Alvarez, who has been on fire recently, boasting a .429 batting average and 4 home runs over the last week.

Conversely, the Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco, who has a solid 9-6 record and an impressive 3.02 ERA. Despite being ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics, Blanco has managed to maintain a competitive edge. His ability to limit home runs will be crucial against a Rays offense that ranks 26th in the league for home runs this season.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the Rays may have a better chance than the betting markets indicate, with some estimates giving them a 54% win probability. This discrepancy could signal value for bettors looking to back Tampa Bay in what is expected to be another close contest, especially given their strong bullpen, ranked 7th in the league. With both teams aiming to capitalize on their recent performances, this game promises to be an intriguing showdown in the AL.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Ronel Blanco’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (62.4% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Yordan Alvarez has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 14.5% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Zack Littell’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (92 mph) below where it was last season (93.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ben Rortvedt has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 76.4-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 69 of their last 112 games (+22.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 27% ROI)