Get the Injury Report for Pirates vs Brewers – Wednesday August 13th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

In a key matchup within the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 13, 2025. The Brewers are enjoying a stellar season with a record of 75-44, while the Pirates are struggling at 51-70. In their last outing, Milwaukee delivered a commanding performance, defeating Pittsburgh 14-0, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Brandon Woodruff is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. He has been exceptional this season, boasting a 4-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.29. His last start on August 8 saw him pitch effectively for 7 innings, allowing only 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters. Woodruff’s ability to generate strikeouts (34.9 K%) will be crucial against a Pirates offense that ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts. Additionally, Woodruff’s high flyball rate (55 FB%) could work in his favor, as the Pirates have the least power in the league with only 84 home runs this season.

On the other side, Mitch Keller is set to start for the Pirates. His record stands at 5-10 with a solid ERA of 3.86, but he struggles with strikeouts, sitting at a low 18.5 K%. Keller’s performance will be pivotal, especially against a Brewers offense that ranks 10th overall and 2nd in team batting average. The projections suggest that Keller will likely allow around 2.9 earned runs today, which may not be enough to keep up with Milwaukee’s scoring capabilities.

With a low game total of 7.5 runs and the Brewers as significant favorites with a moneyline of -225, the odds favor Milwaukee to continue their winning streak against a struggling Pirates team.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Throwing 92.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Mitch Keller places him the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Joey Bart is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Brandon Woodruff’s high usage percentage of his fastball (64.5% this year) is likely dampening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-245)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 117 games (+29.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 98 games (+20.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Blake Perkins – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Blake Perkins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 53% ROI)