Get the Astros vs Pirates Injury Report – Wednesday, June 04, 2025

Houston Astros

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 4, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Houston Astros at PNC Park in what is the second game of their interleague series. The Pirates are currently struggling, sitting at 22-39 this season, while the Astros boast a more respectable 33-27 record. In their previous matchup, the Astros shut out the Pirates 3-0, showcasing their strong pitching and solid offensive performance.

The Pirates are projected to start Michael Burrows, who has had a rough season thus far with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an alarming ERA of 8.64. Burrows has only managed to pitch an average of 4.7 innings per start and projects to allow 2.7 earned runs today. His low strikeout rate (12.8 K%) could pose a challenge against a Houston offense that ranks 14th overall in MLB and is known for its ability to make contact.

On the other hand, Ryan Gusto will take the mound for the Astros. Gusto has a more favorable record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.62, which is considered average. He projects to pitch 4.5 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, which suggests a matchup that could favor the Astros if they can capitalize on Burrows’ struggles.

When looking at the offensive side, the Pirates rank 27th in MLB in terms of overall offense and 29th in home runs, struggling to generate consistent power. In contrast, the Astros have a solid batting average, ranking 10th in the league. While the Pirates have a high number of stolen bases, their lack of power could hinder them against a flyball pitcher like Gusto, who is likely to keep the ball in the park.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Ryan Gusto is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yainer Diaz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 97-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros hitters as a unit rank near the bottom of baseball this year ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Mike Burrows has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of being matched up with 7 same-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)