
Colorado Rockies
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Los Angeles Angels
+165O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-190
(-110/-110)-190
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Kyle Freeland has averaged 14.1 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Tyler Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 88.5-mph figure last season has fallen to 85.4-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jose Soriano – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Soriano has used his non-fastballs 5.2% more often this season (47.7%) than he did last year (42.5%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Mike Trout is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Colorado (#2-worst on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+2.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- Troy Johnston – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)Troy Johnston has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 29% ROI)
