Game Time for Pirates vs Brewers – (7/10/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As we approach July 10, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field in a National League Central matchup. The Brewers are having a strong season with a 53-39 record, while the Pirates sit below average at 44-47. This game marks the second in the series between these two teams. Yesterday, the Brewers took the first game of the series, adding to their momentum.

On the mound for Milwaukee is right-hander Tobias Myers, who has been decent this season with a 5-3 record and a 3.52 ERA. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests he might have been fortunate and could regress. Myers has been serviceable but not dominant, projecting to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 4.7 hits, and 1.3 walks, while striking out 5.2 batters per game.

The Pirates will counter with left-hander Martin Perez, who has struggled this season with a 1-4 record and a 4.72 ERA. His 5.70 xERA indicates he has been lucky and might perform worse moving forward. Perez projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.8 hits, and 2.0 walks, while striking out 3.7 batters per game.

Offensively, the Brewers boast the 7th-best lineup in MLB, ranking 4th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. Their power is average, sitting 15th in home runs. Christian Yelich has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .350 with a 1.400 OPS, including 3 home runs and 5 RBIs in six games.

The Pirates’ offense, on the other hand, ranks 27th overall, with a poor 24th ranking in team batting average and 22nd in stolen bases. They are slightly better in the power department, ranking 19th in home runs. Rowdy Tellez has been their standout hitter recently, batting .391 with a 1.353 OPS, 4 home runs, and 8 RBIs over the past seven games.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Brewers are ranked 18th, while the Pirates’ bullpen is a respectable 10th. Despite this, Milwaukee enters the game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Pirates, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

With the Brewers’ potent offense and the Pirates’ struggles both on the mound and at the plate, Milwaukee looks poised to secure another victory in this series. The projected game total is 8.5 runs, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Martin Perez has used his sinker 5.3% less often this season (35.5%) than he did last year (40.8%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.292) suggests that Joey Bart has been very fortunate this year with his .342 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Brice Turang is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 92 games (+11.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+13.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)