Game Time for Guardians vs Blue Jays – 5/04/2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 4, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre for the third game of their series. Both teams are coming off a tightly contested matchup on May 3, where the Guardians edged the Blue Jays with a 5-3 victory. Currently, the Blue Jays sit with a record of 16-17, struggling through a below-average season, while the Guardians are faring much better at 19-14, showcasing a strong performance thus far.

The Blue Jays will send Bowden Francis to the mound, who is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs. However, Francis has faced challenges this season, holding a 2-4 record and a troubling ERA of 5.28. In his last start on April 29, he struggled significantly, allowing 7 earned runs over just 3 innings. In contrast, Tanner Bibee of the Guardians is having a solid season with a 2-2 record and a much more respectable ERA of 4.36. Bibee also pitched well in his last outing, going 7 innings while allowing only 1 earned run.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season, with the Blue Jays ranking 24th in MLB for offense and the Guardians at 22nd. However, the Guardians have a slight edge in power, ranking 11th in home runs, while the Blue Jays rank 29th with just 23 home runs this season.

Betting markets view this matchup as close, with the Blue Jays currently favored at -115. With Francis’s inconsistencies and the Blue Jays’ offensive woes, it may be a challenge for them to overcome the Guardians, who are riding a wave of confidence after their recent win. The projections suggest that the Blue Jays could be undervalued, but they will need to find a way to capitalize on opportunities to secure a crucial victory.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Nolan Jones has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season’s 88.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bowden Francis has used his secondary offerings 5.7% less often this year (41%) than he did last year (46.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tanner Bibee.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Addison Barger has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 34% ROI)