Game Recap for Pirates vs Mariners – Friday, July 4th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 4, 2025, they find themselves in a solid position with a record of 45-42, making a strong case for an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Pirates are struggling at 38-50, reflecting a challenging year. The Mariners are coming off a narrow loss to the New York Yankees, where they fell 3-2, while the Pirates enjoyed a 5-0 victory against the Cincinnati Reds in their last outing.

Bryan Woo, the Mariners’ projected starter, has been a standout pitcher this season, ranking as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. With a Win/Loss record of 7-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.93, Woo has consistently delivered quality outings. He projects to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. However, he does have a tendency to allow hits and walks, which could be a concern against a Pirates lineup that, while struggling, has shown some speed on the bases.

On the other hand, Bailey Falter of the Pirates has not fared as well, ranking among the worst pitchers in the league. His ERA stands at a respectable 3.62, but his xFIP of 4.87 suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. Falter’s low strikeout rate could be problematic against a Mariners offense that ranks 11th in MLB, particularly as they have the 6th most home runs this season.

With the Mariners boasting a strong bullpen ranked 10th in MLB, they hold a significant advantage in this matchup. The current Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a tightly contested game. Given the Mariners’ favorable matchup against a struggling Pirates offense, they are positioned as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -195, indicating confidence in their ability to secure a victory.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Bailey Falter’s change-up utilization has risen by 7.4% from last season to this one (0.6% to 8%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball batters like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all SPs, Bryan Woo’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph grades out in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mitch Garver has big-time power (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter doesn’t generate many whiffs (21st percentile K%) — great news for Garver.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Seattle Mariners have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games (+9.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.50 Units / 73% ROI)