Game Location for Marlins vs Pirates – 6/9/25

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 9, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Miami Marlins at PNC Park for the first game of their series. Both teams currently sit in the lower tier of the standings, with the Pirates at 26-40 and the Marlins at 24-39, reflecting a tough season for both squads. The Pirates are coming off a disappointing stretch, and while they haven’t had any standout performances lately, they will look to turn the tide in this matchup.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Michael Burrows, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.27 and a 1-1 record across three starts. Despite being ranked the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he may be due for better results. He projects to pitch around 4.8 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.1 hits and 1.2 walks per game raises concerns.

On the other side, Miami will send out Eury Perez, who is enjoying a solid season with a ranking of 63rd among MLB starters. His projections indicate he will go about 4.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs with an average of 5.0 strikeouts. However, he too faces challenges with a projection of allowing 4.3 hits and 1.4 walks.

Offensively, the Pirates rank an abysmal 27th in MLB in batting average and home runs, which could hinder their ability to support Burrows. In contrast, the Marlins have a decidedly more average lineup, ranking 18th overall, suggesting they may have the upper hand in this matchup. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested battle as both teams search for momentum.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Eury Perez in the 92nd percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph EV last year has lowered to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a group grade out 9th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 93-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 34% ROI)