Game Location for Marlins vs Pirates – 6/9/25

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 9, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Miami Marlins at PNC Park in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates holding a record of 26-40 and the Marlins at 24-39. The Pirates recently secured a narrow victory against the Marlins, winning 2-1 in their last matchup, while the Marlins lost their latest game 3-2, further extending their woes.

The Pirates are projected to send Michael Burrows to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has faced challenges this season, reflected in his 5.27 ERA. However, his 3.93 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential improvement going forward. Burrows pitched well in his last start, going five innings with no earned runs, striking out six batters, and allowing just five hits and no walks. He projects to average 4.8 innings pitched today, along with allowing 2.6 earned runs, which isn’t ideal.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Eury Perez, another right-handed pitcher with a solid ranking of 63rd among MLB starters. While Perez projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and has struggled with control, allowing 1.5 walks per game, his performance could benefit from the Pirates’ offensive struggles. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in the league in offense, and while they excel in stolen bases, their overall hitting has been lackluster.

Betting markets see this matchup as close, with the Pirates favored at -125, and the projections suggest they might outperform their current standings. With Burrows coming off a strong outing and the chance to exploit a Marlins offense that ranks 18th overall, this could be an opportunity for the Pirates to gain traction in a tumultuous season.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  With 6 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Eury Perez figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph EV last year has lowered to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Dane Myers, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (-125)
  Among every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Typically, hitters like Brett Sullivan who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 67% ROI)