Follow Live Updates on Reds vs Brewers – Sunday, September 28th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on September 28, 2025, at American Family Field, the stakes are high for the Brewers, who boast a solid 96-65 record this season. Meanwhile, the Reds sit at 83-78, having had an above-average year but are not in contention for a postseason spot.

In their last matchup, the Brewers secured a win, continuing their strong performance as they aim to solidify their playoff position. Freddy Peralta, projected to start for Milwaukee, has had an exceptional season with a 17-6 record and an impressive 2.68 ERA, ranking him as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, his 3.87 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate and could face challenges going forward. Peralta’s ability to strike out 6.6 batters per game is a key asset, though he does project to allow 4.0 hits and 1.6 walks, which could provide opportunities for the Reds.

On the other side, Brady Singer takes the mound for Cincinnati. With a 14-11 record and a 3.95 ERA, Singer is considered an average pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.8 per game. He also struggles with hits and walks, projecting to allow 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks, which could be detrimental against a Brewers offense ranked 11th overall. Notably, the Brewers rank 3rd in team batting average, indicating their ability to capitalize on these pitching vulnerabilities.

The Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a 56% implied probability of winning. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a closely contested matchup that could hinge on the effectiveness of each starting pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate of 2442 rpm is in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 80.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+295/-430)
  Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Christian Yelich has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 27.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 16.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 116 games (+26.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 156 games (+29.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.05 Units / 65% ROI)