Follow Live Updates on Orioles vs Padres – Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres

On September 3, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Padres are currently enjoying an above-average season with a record of 76-63, while the Orioles sit at 63-76, struggling to find their footing. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams, and the Padres will look to build on their recent success.

In their last game, the Padres showcased their offensive prowess by dominating the Orioles, which could be a sign of things to come. San Diego’s offense ranks 18th in MLB, but they excel in batting average, ranking 8th with a .258 average. However, they have struggled with power, sitting at 29th in home runs. This imbalance could play a role in their performance against the Orioles.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher with a 2-3 record and a 5.06 ERA this season. Cortes has been somewhat lucky, as indicated by his 6.87 FIP, suggesting he may not maintain his current performance level. He typically pitches around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which could give the Padres a fighting chance if their offense can capitalize on the Orioles’ pitching.

Cade Povich will take the mound for Baltimore, carrying a 2-7 record and a 5.04 ERA. Povich’s projections indicate he may perform better than his numbers suggest, as he has been somewhat unlucky this year. However, he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings, which may put additional pressure on the Orioles’ struggling bullpen, ranked 28th in MLB.

With the Padres favored at -165 and an implied team total of 4.74 runs, they have a solid chance to secure a victory against the Orioles, who are underdogs at +145, with an average implied team total of 3.76 runs. The matchup offers an opportunity for the Padres to extend their winning streak and solidify their position in the standings.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Cade Povich has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Emmanuel Rivera – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Emmanuel Rivera is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nestor Cortes’s 89.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 2.6-mph fall off from last season’s 92.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 83-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 126 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 129 games (+16.13 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+6.55 Units / 73% ROI)