Follow Live Updates on Mets vs Phillies - Saturday, June 20th, 2026

+155O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-175

Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Freddy Peralta has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Marcus Semien is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cristopher Sanchez meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-175)
The 5th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)

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