
Chicago Cubs
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Milwaukee Brewers
+115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-140
(-110/-110)-140
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Drew Pomeranz – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+190/-255)With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Drew Pomeranz will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineThe Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Christian Yelich may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 123 games (+27.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 80 of their last 159 games (+14.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 65% ROI)