Follow Live Updates on Braves vs Brewers – Wednesday, July 31st, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on July 31, 2024, at American Family Field, both teams are poised to put forth their best efforts in this National League matchup. Currently, the Brewers hold a 61-45 record, reflecting an outstanding season, while the Braves’ 56-49 record underscores a solid, above-average performance.

The Brewers will start right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta, who faces off against the Braves’ righty, Spencer Schwellenbach. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s offense has been a mixed bag. They rank 5th in team batting average but a disappointing 20th in home runs, although they offset that with an impressive 2nd place in stolen bases. On the other hand, Atlanta’s hitters are 17th in batting average, 10th in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases this season.

Milwaukee’s lineup is expected to get a boost from Jackson Chourio, their best hitter over the last seven games. Chourio has been scorching hot, batting .450 with a 1.250 OPS, including two home runs and four RBIs in his last five games. This offensive surge could be crucial against a Braves team whose best hitter of late, Orlando Arcia, comes off a week where he hit .389 with a 1.222 OPS, including two home runs and four RBIs in six games.

This game will be the third in the series between these two teams, adding an extra layer of intrigue and the potential for scoreboard impact in the standings. While Freddy Peralta has been reliable for Milwaukee, the Braves are hoping Spencer Schwellenbach can rise to the occasion on the mound.

Given the Brewers’ superior standing and the recent hot streak of Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee appears to have a slight edge. However, with the capabilities of both teams, this game could swing in either direction and should provide plenty of excitement for fans and bettors alike.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Chris Sale’s four-seam fastball utilization has fallen by 5.4% from last year to this one (43.1% to 37.7%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Travis d’Arnaud – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Travis d’Arnaud has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Freddy Peralta has experienced a big decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2448 rpm over the entire season to 2391 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Sal Frelick’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 84.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 81.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Gary Sanchez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 95 games (+27.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+14.00 Units / 21% ROI)