New York Mets
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-150
As the New York Yankees and the New York Mets prepare to clash in a thrilling interleague matchup on July 23, 2024, baseball fans and bettors alike have plenty to look forward to. The Yankees will host the game at Yankee Stadium, where they have showcased their dominance this season with a 60-42 record. Their impressive form has them contending strongly in the playoff race. The Mets, on the other hand, sit at 51-48 and are aiming to push above their current standing.
Luis Gil takes the mound for the Yankees, bringing with him a 10-5 record and a stellar 3.17 ERA. Ranked #39 among starting pitchers, Gil has been more than reliable; however, his 4.06 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. His high-flyball tendencies (40 FB%) could spell trouble against a power-laden Mets offense that ranks 5th in home runs with 126 this season.
The Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who sports a 4-6 record and a 4.13 ERA. Despite his numbers, both his 5.18 xERA and 5.01 FIP indicate that he’s been somewhat fortunate. Quintana’s groundball rate (48 GB%) might help neutralize a potent Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in home runs but tends to struggle with hitting grounders effectively.
Offensively, both teams bring heavy artillery. The Yankees boast the 4th best overall offensive ranking, while the Mets are a solid 8th. The recent hot streak of Juan Soto, who has hit .611 with a 1.909 OPS over the last week, could be pivotal for the Yankees. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil’s recent surge, hitting .333 with a 1.391 OPS and 3 home runs in the past four games, could inject life into the Mets’ lineup.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Yankees as strong favorites with a 62% win probability. This might be a good spot for bettors, considering the implied win probability from the current moneyline stands at 59%. With a projected game total of 8.5 runs, both offenses are expected to contribute significantly.
All in all, this matchup promises to be a high-stakes, high-energy affair, filled with power-hitting and strategic pitching. The Yankees, with their slight edge both in pitching and offensive firepower, look well-positioned to take the first game of the series.
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jose Quintana will concede an average of 2.91 earned runs in this matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Over the last 7 days, Francisco Lindor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Today, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Luis Gil – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)With 6 batters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Luis Gil ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Juan Soto has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 94.8-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carlos Narvaez, J.D. Davis, Aaron Judge).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+130)The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+14.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 92 games (+18.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-180)Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)