Find the Official Lineup for D-Backs vs Marlins – 4/16/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 16, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are eyeing a crucial series that could impact their standings in the National League. The Marlins, sitting at 8-8, are in search of consistency, while the Diamondbacks are riding high with a 10-7 record, showcasing a strong start to the season.

In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks secured a commanding victory, demonstrating their offensive prowess. Despite this, the Marlins have a solid batting average that ranks 8th in MLB and could leverage their home advantage to turn the tide. The Marlins’ struggles with home runs, ranking 25th in the league, might hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, especially against a competent Diamondbacks pitching staff.

The matchup on the mound features right-handers Max Meyer and Brandon Pfaadt. Meyer, projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.00 this season, although advanced projections suggest he may not maintain this level of performance. Conversely, Pfaadt enters with a 3.50 ERA and a slightly higher expected ERA of 5.77, hinting at potential regression.

While the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 5th in MLB, the Marlins’ recent form shows their best hitter performing well, with a .308 batting average over the past week. This matchup presents a compelling narrative, as the Marlins look to defy their status as underdogs, currently sitting at a moneyline of +135. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in Miami’s potential to pull off an upset in front of their home crowd.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has used his secondary pitches 9.8% more often this season (54.2%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Gabriel Moreno has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a unit rank near the top of the league since the start of last season (6th-) when assessing their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+135)
  Among every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Xavier Edwards’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86-mph figure last year has lowered to 81.8-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s game, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.6% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+130/-170)
  Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 46% ROI)