Find the Official Lineup for Brewers vs Cardinals – 9/19/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers prepare to square off on September 19, 2025, at Busch Stadium, the stakes are clear. The Cardinals, with a disappointing record of 74-79, find themselves significantly below average this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers are in strong form, boasting a 94-59 record that positions them among the top contenders in the National League Central. Notably, the Brewers won their last matchup against the Cardinals, adding pressure to St. Louis as they aim to turn their fortunes around.

In this matchup, the Cardinals are projected to send Sonny Gray to the mound. Gray, currently ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has had an up-and-down season, with a 13-8 record and an ERA of 4.43. Although his ERA suggests he’s been average, his 3.12 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform better in the future. His ability to rack up strikeouts (26.8 K%) is a key factor, but facing a low-strikeout Brewers offense may present challenges.

On the other hand, Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski offers a solid alternative, ranked 68th among pitchers. Misiorowski’s 5-2 record and ERA of 4.35 mirror Gray’s averages but suggest he can be even more effective based on recent projections. His average innings pitched (4.5) raise some red flags regarding his ability to go deep into games.

Offensively, the Brewers shine, ranking 9th in the league, while the Cardinals struggle with a 24th overall ranking. Betting lines suggest this will be a close contest, with the Cardinals’ implied team total at just 3.66 runs, indicating skepticism regarding their hitting prowess. However, given the Cardinals’ need to bounce back and the slight edge in pitching talent with Gray, they could pose a challenge for Milwaukee’s playoff hopes.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Jacob Misiorowski has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 10.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Joey Ortiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.8-mph average last season has dropped off to 86-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Sonny Gray’s cutter percentage has dropped by 5.4% from last year to this one (17.8% to 12.4%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has been unlucky given the .054 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+8.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 144 games (+29.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)