Find the Best White Sox vs Nationals Picks and Odds – 9/28/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals

The Chicago White Sox travel to Nationals Park for an interleague matchup against the Washington Nationals on September 28, 2025. Both teams are having disappointing seasons, with the Nationals sitting at 66-95 and the White Sox at 59-102. Their last meeting ended with Washington taking a hard-fought victory, further highlighting the struggles of both rosters this year.

Brad Lord, who is projected to start for the Nationals, has had a tumultuous season. While his ERA of 4.12 is above average, his 4.62 xERA suggests luck has played a role in his performance. Lord’s inconsistency is evidenced by a 5-9 record in 18 starts this year. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs, but his potential for allowing 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks is concerning, particularly against a White Sox lineup that, although struggling overall, features some capable hitters.

On the other side, Shane Smith takes the mound for the White Sox. With a solid ERA of 3.98 and a 6-8 record in 28 games, Smith is somewhat of a bright spot for Chicago. Projections indicate he may allow around 2.3 earned runs while striking out 5.1 batters on average. However, his propensity to walk batters could be problematic, especially when facing a Nationals offense that ranks 3rd least in the league in walks.

Despite their low offensive rankings—25th in overall offense for the Nationals and 28th for the White Sox—Washington’s lineup has shown occasional flashes, particularly from their best hitter, who boasts a .500 batting average over the past week. With a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, the Nationals may have an edge if they can capitalize on Smith’s control issues. As the season winds down, this matchup presents another opportunity for both teams to showcase what little potential remains.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Shane Smith will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under Total Bases
  In terms of his home runs, Colson Montgomery has experienced some positive variance this year. His 43.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under Total Bases
  Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Brad Lord turned in a great performance in his previous start and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Luis Garcia Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts