Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mariners vs Marlins - July 07, 2026

+105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-125

Bryan Woo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryan Woo is expected to tally an average of 17.4 outs in today’s game.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive skill to be a .350, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .092 disparity between that mark and his actual .258 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Max Meyer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Max Meyer’s slider utilization has spiked by 9% from last year to this one (46.8% to 55.8%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
Jakob Marsee is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The 6.6% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins grades them out as the #27 group of hitters in MLB this year by this standard.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-125)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+10.95 Units / 44% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)

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