Explore Player Props Preview for Guardians vs Brewers – 8/17/24

Cleveland Guardians

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cleveland Guardians on August 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive battle, with the Brewers currently holding a record of 70-52 and the Guardians at 72-50. This matchup features two teams in contention, with the Guardians performing slightly better so far this season.

In their last meeting on August 16, the Brewers edged out the Guardians with a close 5-3 victory, showcasing their ability to win tight games. Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound, sporting a 7-7 record and a 4.11 ERA this season. While not perfect, advanced projections suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as his SIERA sits at 3.58, reflecting his potential for improvement. However, he faces a Guardians lineup that has been difficult to strike out, ranking 5th least in MLB in strikeouts.

On the other side, Tanner Bibee is set to start for Cleveland, boasting a better record of 10-4 and an impressive 3.39 ERA. Bibee has shown strong control this season, with a low walk rate that could challenge a Brewers offense known for drawing walks, ranking 3rd most in MLB. This dynamic could shift the advantage toward Bibee, depending on how well the Brewers adjust.

As a notable trend, while the Brewers rank 9th in offensive production, they struggle with home runs, sitting 20th in the league. That could play a crucial role against a Guardians team that boasts a solid offense but has been merely average overall. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the projections giving a slight edge to the Brewers, bettors should expect another tightly contested match today.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Milwaukee’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jose Ramirez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Freddy Peralta has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 115 games (+16.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 111 games (+9.87 Units / 7% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 27% ROI)